What Will Trump’s Policy Toward Iran Be

by:Amir Dabirimehr

During the first four years of his presidency (2016–۲۰۲۰), Trump implemented hostile policies against Iran that significantly impacted the Middle East. With his return to the presidency of the United States on January 20, 2025, an important question arises: What will his policies and actions toward Iran be? Will he follow the same path as before, or will he adopt a new approach?

An analysis of Trump’s past policies reveals that he primarily sought to curb Iran’s influence in the Middle East and weaken its economy through measures such as withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), imposing harsher economic sanctions, designating the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization, and, most notably, orchestrating the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force. These actions heightened diplomatic and military tensions between the two countries. Now that Trump is returning to the White House, he faces several crucial choices regarding Iran, with outcomes that could significantly affect Middle East security. His potential options, rooted in his previous presidency, include:

1. Returning to the Nuclear Agreement with Iran (JCPOA)

In May 2018, Trump unilaterally withdrew the United States from the Iran nuclear agreement (JCPOA), calling it an ineffective deal that brought Iran closer to developing nuclear weapons. From Iran’s perspective, this action was a clear violation of America’s international commitments. The re-imposition of sanctions following the U.S. exit from the JCPOA placed Iran under severe economic pressure. During the recent U.S. elections, Trump stated multiple times that if Iran guarantees it is not seeking a nuclear bomb, he would be willing to negotiate and reach a new agreement. International observers are now waiting to see whether he will follow through on these statements once in office.

2. Maximum Pressure Campaign Against Iran

After exiting the JCPOA, Trump launched the “maximum pressure” strategy, which entailed imposing extensive economic sanctions on Iran. These sanctions, targeting oil exports and financial transactions, severely impacted Iran’s economy, particularly affecting the livelihoods of ordinary citizens. Despite this, the policy did not succeed in curbing Iran’s regional activities, proxy influence, or nuclear and missile programs—a reality acknowledged by Robert Malley, the U.S. Special Envoy for Iran, during a 2022 Senate hearing on nuclear negotiations. While Trump also recognizes this outcome, he places the blame on his electoral rival, Joe Biden. The Iranian government has expressed willingness to negotiate if economic sanctions are lifted or eased, as foreign investment is crucial for its economic development. Many Iranians argue that U.S. sanctions have hurt the populace more than the government itself.

3. Designating the IRGC as a Terrorist Organization

In April 2019, the Trump administration designated the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) as a foreign terrorist organization, marking the first time that the military branch of a country had been officially labeled a terrorist organization by the U.S. Unless Washington reverses this decision, any significant improvement in relations with Iran appears unlikely.

4. Assassination of General Qassem Soleimani

One of the most significant events during Trump’s presidency—and a major obstacle to any future agreement with Iran—was his direct order for the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, commander of the IRGC’s Quds Force. This operation occurred in January 2020 at Baghdad Airport. Iran maintains that Soleimani was a key popular figure in the fight against ISIS and argues that his assassination lacked legal justification. Widely regarded as the most popular Iranian military figure in the past half-century, Soleimani’s death has left many Iranians deeply resentful of Trump.

It appears that the Islamic Republic expects at least an apology from Trump for this action as a precondition for any meaningful dialogue.

5. Supporting Internal Protests in Iran

In 2019, during violent protests in Iran sparked by rising gasoline prices, which led to casualties among demonstrators, Trump expressed support for the protesters, referring to them as “brave.” Through various statements and tweets, he declared that the U.S. stood with the Iranian people and supported the protests. Iran has consistently viewed U.S. support for its opposition as a threat to national security and has made it clear that any future negotiations must include assurances that the U.S. will not pursue regime change. This remains a key Iranian demand in the context of Trump’s new term.

Conclusion

In summary, if Trump continues the same policies from his first term, there is little hope for improving relations between the two countries, and heightened bilateral and regional tensions are likely. However, if the U.S. shows a willingness to lift or ease sanctions, there may be a possibility for limited improvements in relations. In return, Iran could offer guarantees regarding its nuclear activities under the framework of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and provide assurances to Washington about not posing threats to U.S. forces or its allies in the Middle East, potentially paving the way for a bilateral agreement.